By Urban Lundberg, Senior Consultant, Fisher International
The current debate over globalization and trade is fundamentally challenging some of the basic beliefs that have dominated global commerce. Potential decisions regarding trade agreements and tariffs cannot be seen as individual stand-alone events since countries, markets and corporations are connected to and interdependent on each other. A shift to a more protectionist approach would undoubtedly lead to dramatic changes of market dynamics and there would be winners and losers as in all change processes. Major capital investments are likely to be delayed until the potential new outlines of global trade have started to crystallize.
The verdict is still out on whether the global paper industry as a whole, once the dust has settled, would experience value creation or value destruction. But maybe the heated debate will merely lead to a strengthening of the acceptance of the overall benefits of global trade and some system improvements. The future will tell.
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