FisherSolve is very commonly used amongst many major players in the Pulp and Paper industry to evaluate current conditions of the paper market regarding production, costs, carbon, energy, and viability. Of the various unique modules FisherSolve offers, our Capacity Trends module has proven to be quite beneficial during periods in which various unpredictable factors - from a world-wide pandemic to political wars - continue to heavily impact our already volatile market.
Our Capacity Trends module provides insight into the status of the industry’s past (with the exception of the latest quarter) and announced future capacity changes. This data can be aggregated in tables and graphs at different levels by company, geography, and product detail, among others.
To demonstrate a use case of this powerful tool, we will dive into Capacity Trends and look at bleached kraft and sulfite pulps, which have been anything but static in the past decade and are expected to keep growing in the coming years.
As illustrated in the graph below, bleached kraft and sulfite pulp capacity reached roughly 68 million MT/YR in 2022, a CAGR of 1.5% – and the current top five suppliers of this segment are highlighted below. Suzano, through internal projects, mergers and acquisitions, has become the world leader in bleached pulp production since 2019. It’s also interesting to note that 90% of their bleached pulp production is eucalyptus pulp, whereas most European mills are largely tied to softwood pulp production.
As shown in the image below, bleached pulp capacity over the next several years looks very different for each region. Unlike every other region, North America is expected to end 2022 and 2023 with less capacity than the previous year. However, Latin America and Europe will continue to see production increases, with significant spikes in pulp capacity between 2023 and 2024, primarily coming from bleached eucalyptus expansions in Latin America. Some of these expansion projects include:
- 2022: 1.27 million FMT from Arauco’s MAPA project
- 2023: 2.1 million FMT from UPM’s Paso de los Toros mill
- 2024: 2.15 million FMT from Suzano’s Ribas do Rio Pardo mill and 1.47 million FMT from Paracel’s Concepción mill
From the capacity increase we will see occur in Europe, a large portion of this will primarily come from the announced Kemi Mill, which is expected to produce 1.5 MT/YR in 2023. Other projects in Russia, such as the one announced by Segezha, will represent an additional 3 million FMT between 2024-2026. However, the completion of the projects announced in Western Europe are subject to the current geopolitical situation in Russia. The graph below, from FisherSolve’s Market Trends module, shows that the imports of Russian bleached pulp to China have been decreasing since 2020 (as reported by the importing country).
Why Is Access to This Data Important?
Having access to the expansive information FisherSolve can provide is incredibly crucial for a number of reasons. The main reason being that the innovative companies of the future will compete on analytics – and those who do it well will prove to be more profitable.
Studies have shown that companies who use business intelligence (BI) well have higher revenue and revenue growth than their peers who don’t. Sustainable competitive advantage not only comes from having assets, but from capitalizing on them better than competitors do. This only happens with a constant flow of superior internal decisions that are made frequently. In other words, new products have to be developed more creatively, plants have to run more efficiently, marketing has to reach more of the target audience, and sales forces have to close more leads than their competitors.
The foundational elements of a winning analytical company include:
- Analytical Culture
- Data and Tools
- Resources and Skills
This can sound a bit overwhelming and leaving you wondering where to even start.
This is where Fisher International steps in. Fisher International, the industry leader in strategic data-informed decision making, helps clients make significant and enduring improvements to their performance through:
- Integrated solutions that increase customers’ effective decision-making
- High-quality data provided through FisherSolve
- Best-in-class digital product development and product innovation
- Expert consulting from industry leaders
With a full suite of business intelligence resources, Fisher can help create tailored solutions for all industry stakeholders - from mill suppliers to producers to investors and much more. We provide answers and insights so your business can transform its performance, capitalize on its strengths, make sound decisions, and achieve greater results.
To learn more about what Fisher International’s expertise, consulting, and high-quality data can do for your company, or for further insights on fiber supply and how it could impact your business, talk with an expert at Fisher International today.
About the Author:
Camilla Abbati - Senior Analyst and Product Manager
Dr. Abbati has more than 15 years of experience in process and engineering design. Her areas of expertise include process simulation, equipment design, capital cost estimation, and investment risk analysis. At Fisher International, Camilla is part of the Benchmark Team and is responsible for developing, improving, and running the Benchmark Modules in FisherSolve. Her research interests are related to approaches and methodologies to aid investment decisions in biorefineries at early stages of design, such as techno-economic assessment and risk analysis.
Camilla holds a bachelor’s and master’s degree in chemical engineering from University of São Carlos and University of Campinas. She also has a Ph.D. in forest biomaterials from North Carolina State University, with a minor in business.